We are nearly a month into the 2023-24 NBA season, and we officially have a big enough sample size to start drawing some real conclusions and thoughts on certain players and teams. Let’s take a look at some of the biggest early season storylines, and whether I think they are going to continue throughout the year.
1. Tyrese Maxey is a surefire All-Star: Sustainable
Through 13 games, Tyrese Maxey is averaging 26.8 PPG and 7.1 APG on 61.4% true shooting. He has seamlessly filled the James Harden vacancy, and is playing at an All-NBA level. He has removed any pressure for Philadelphia to go out and trade for another star, as he’s proving to be one in his own. The numbers look great, but Maxey passes the eye test as well.
He’s playing with major confidence and is in a perfect spot alongside the reigning MVP, Joel Embiid. Maxey is rounding into a true three-level scorer who has the speed and shotmaking to get a bucket on anyone. While he might eventually cool off a bit, I expect Maxey to continue to be one of the premier guards in the East, and lock up an All-Star spot.
2. Chet Holmgren has looked like the ROY: Sustainable
While it’s still very early in the season, Chet Holmgren has quickly launched himself into a Rookie of the Year race that seemed all but decided before the year even began. Chet has been more impressive than anyone could have imagined, showing a level of two-way play we see from 10-year vets. While he is clearly in a more advantageous situation in OKC than Wembanyama in San Antonio, Holmgren has been the second best player on a top-8 team in the league.
Rarely do we see rookies play this big of a role on good teams, but Chet is doing that and more. His defense and rim protection was expected to transition to the NBA pretty quickly, but his offensive game seems to be miles ahead of what we expected. While Chet might have to overcome a little media bias to win Rookie of the Year, I really think he’s capable of doing so.
3. The Clippers are one of the worst teams in the league with James Harden: Not Sustainable
Since acquiring James Harden, the Clippers are 2-5 with wins over the Rockets and Spurs. Their overall net rating has plummeted, and the team as a whole just looks different. While the intigration of Harden has been a little harder than expected, it was never going to be easy. Adding an all-time great offensive player to a team with three other offensive geniuses is always going to take some time to get used to.
I’m not sure the addition of Harden raised the Clippers ceiling much, but I can’t imagine it dragging them down to this level. At the end of the day, the amount of talent on the floor is almost always going to favor the Clippers, they just need to figure out how to orchestrate it. Assuming health, I fully expect Ty Lue and this squad to figure out a way to get this team in a spot to contend for a Western Conference title.
4. The Minnesota Timberwolves are a top-3 team in the West: Sustainable
Through 13 games the Minnesota Timberwolves boast a 10-3 record, good enough for the top spot in the West. They have the best defense in the NBA, and an offense that can be deadly when their star duo gets going. The KAT/Gobert frontcourt continues to look better by the day, and Anthony Edwards is really close to making that All-NBA leap.
This defense gives me full confidence in the Timberwolves to be a legitimate threat in the West. They have an elite rim protector, and two elite point-of-attack wing defenders in Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. We’ve already seen them beat the Nuggets and Celtics, and they simply look like a really complete when their offense is clicking. I’m not sure they are ready for title contention yet, but I see no reason why they can’t enter the postseason with homecourt advantage.
5. The Houston Rockets look like a playoff team: Not Sustainable
The Rockets have had an up and down season so far, but currently sit at 6-6 and have looked the part of a playoff team. They just had a rough ending to their West Coast road trip, losing three in a row to the Clippers, Lakers, and Warriors.
They have quality wins over the Nuggets, Lakers, and Kings (x2). All signs point to this being a fringe playoff team, but I’m not buying it. While I do like where this team is headed, I don’t think they are ready yet. Alperen Sengun has stepped forward as the future franchise player, while Jalen Green has had an underwhelming start to his third year in the league.
I ultimately think this team lacks that top-end talent needed in a loaded Western Conference, and I think they are going to be far too inconsistent throughout the course of an 82-game season. While the Rockets might overachieve this year, I don’t think that means they make the playoffs.
