5 Days Away!
This draft lacks the normal consensus that most drafts have. Due to this, it’s a bit hard to have a bold take when everything would be believable.
With that being said, I try my best to give 6 bold predictions on what will happen on June 26th and June 27th. Some hotter than others but regardless of my accuracy the draft this year projects to be unexpected and exciting regardless of what people think about the class.
Bub Carrington Goes in the Lottery
Bub Carrington’s momentum is picking up at the right time. Carrington is going to finish this cycle as my 6th-ranked prospect so the lottery makes perfect sense to me. Carrington has complete control on the ball and is already a good on-ball scorer despite being 18 years old. At 6’5, Carrington can be a jumbo point guard or guard and passes the ball extremely well.
Most of the concerns about Carrington stem from his lack of efficiency and lack of rim pressure. So much of Carrington’s game will tremendously improve as he gets a stronger lower body. So many of Bub’s shots are short and often he is able to get in the paint but can not finish because of his lack of strength. With an NBA strength program, Carrington can ease a lot of those concerns, and at just 18 his ceiling is higher than people give him credit for.
In the lottery, Portland, San Antonio, Utah, OKC, and Sacramento will all give Carrington a good look with their picks. Carrington will take a year or two to truly impact winning but he has a higher floor than given credit for and has star potential few do in this draft.
Atlanta Takes Donovan Clingan #1
Zaccharie Risacher is the favorite to go #1 but Atlanta may just swing with Donovan Clingan. This is not a move I agree with but the Atlanta views Clingan as more of a win-now play than Risacher and Sarr. It seems very likely one of Trae Young or DeJounte Murray will get dealt this summer and Clingan will give Atlanta a centerpiece to build around going forward.
Clingan has all defensive team potential and is a talented passer and play-finisher. Clingan is a top 5 talent in this draft so if he is the right pick in this draft is semantics especially considering how flat this draft is at the top. The ripple effects of this selection would be fascinating to watch on Wednesday, with it most likely leading to Sarr landing in Washington and potentially Risacher falling to the Spurs at 4.
Nikola Topic Falls Out of the Lottery
I think this would be a big mistake but it may be where we are headed. It was revealed Topic had and played through a partially torn ACL. Naturally, this scares teams and people will be relying on their medical staff heavily when it comes to Topic. Unless there is long-term structural damage ACL injuries are something people get over often and shouldn’t be a big factor when drafting an 18-year-old.
A high-level offensive engine Topic can run the show for a team at the next level. Nearly 6’7, Topic is a jumbo point guard and an elite passer. An 88% free throw shooter and someone with great touch, I buy Topic’s shot developing long-term and he puts so much pressure on the rim that he will be a very good offensive player regardless. Not a great defender but at his size, it won’t be hard for him to be an average defender in the league.
A Star is Dealt on Draft Night
This is kind of a broad prediction but because so many people view this draft it resulting in a star being traded is pretty bold. Jimmy Butler, Mikal Bridges, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Anfernee Simons, Trae Young, DeJounte Murray, and Brandon Ingram are among the names rumored to be on the move come draft night. The draft is an easy time for teams to reset the table and either acquire or trade stars.
The picks themselves are not as valuable as usual but each team will still fall in love with certain players in the draft and that makes them more attracted to certain picks. Additionally, other assets can be attached in order for teams to closer get to the value of stars. It is rare we go an offseason without a star trade and this year the inevitable deal will occur on draft night.
Kyshawn George Goes Lottery
Similar to Carrington, George is picking up some momentum at the right time. Kyshawn George was one of 21 players invited to the green room which means teams believe he will go early on the 26th. 6’8, 41% from 3, and a sneaky 16% assist rate there is a lot to like about George. A lack of burst or clear separation may hold George back at the next level but he has a good handle and is versatile defensively so there will be a role for him in the league.
Portland at 14 makes a lot of sense as a home for Kyshawn George from a developmental standpoint. Sacramento and Oklahoma City make sense from a roster need stance but they are a little farther along in their rebuild so it may be hard for George to get minutes. Regardless if it is at the end of the lottery or just outside the lottery, Kyshawn George is one of the best upside picks in this draft.
Isaiah Collier Slips on Draft Night
The former #2 overall recruit had a disappointing freshman season at USC and it most likely will have him outside the lottery. Isaiah Collier is an elite advantage creator and a great playmaker but his lack of ability to shoot, defend, and reportedly poor workouts may see him slip in the draft. Collier not being a top 20 pick would be a huge drop off from even January or February where he was a top 10 pick.
Any team drafting Collier has to have a plan on how to properly utilize him as he develops as a shooter. If the shooting takes a big jump he has as much starting point guard potential as anyone in this class. If not it is hard to see him being someone who can play in a playoff rotation without defending or stretching the floor.
