These NFL Playoffs have been spectacular! We got through that miserable first round and it was more than worth it, as the 2nd and 3rd rounds were absolutely amazing. With that said myself and a lot of America probably loves this Super Bowl as we have two new and refreshing teams. I feel like I’m one of the few who are happy Tom Brady is gone as while I think he is the G.O.A.T, it will be nice to see new faces getting their chances. Anyways with that said, we have our Super Bowl matchup and I think people have fallen too in love with the Bengals. With that said I’ll give you some reasons why the Rams will win the Super Bowl.
1. The Lines of Scrimmage
If you compare the two teams, the Rams are better in a lot of areas, especially in the trenches. The Bengals gave up the third most sacks in the league. The team gave up 9 to a Titans team led by a good but not spectacular Jefferrey Simmons. The Rams have three pass rushers who are of strong caliber in Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd although he has been quiet these playoffs. The Bengals don’t have a lineman capable of stopping Miller and Donald for extended periods. So you might ask, how would the Bengals combat this, probably by throwing quick passes. However, not that Joe Burrow can’t make quick reads and passes, that’s not his style, as despite being sacked the third most in the league, he is 11th in Time to Throw. This is on Burrow because we know he has one of the best receiving corps in the league so you can’t say his receivers aren’t getting open. They also are 9th in intended air yards which says they are at their best throwing down the field more in spite of their bad offensive line. We also know Burrow has a penchant for holding the ball for long periods in the pocket. In short, with the Bengals penchant for longer developing passing plays and the Rams menacing pass rushers, I expect Burrow to be running for his life.
2. The Rams also have been dominant in the Playoffs against the Run
While Joe Mixon is a very good running back, the Bengals don’t run the ball particularly well as they rank tied for 26th in the NFL in yards per carry at exactly 4. The Rams have played three teams in these playoffs who all rank better in yards per carry and have been holding these teams to nothing against the run (Arizona 3.4, Tampa Bay 3.6, 49ers 2.5). This goes back to my first point, if Bengals want to run the ball or get into their play action sets, they might have great difficulty doing so because this Rams team has been dominant against the run this postseason.
3. History says the Rams should win this game
This is a point I’m making that doesn’t really have statistical backing but just things I have begun to notice and observe over my years of being a football fan. When one team has the best individual talent, but the other team clearly has the better team, ride with the team that overall is a lot better Here are some recent examples that stick out in my mind.
Last Year’s Super Bowl-Heading in, we knew how the Chiefs were this machine, however, the Bucs were clearly the better team, aside from their offense being slightly worse. With the Chiefs missing both of their starting tackles it should have been easy to see that Mahomes would be running for his life, like I think Burrow will be. We knew Mahomes was the better QB than Brady, however his offensive line and average defense let him down.
Rams vs Buccaneers 2022 Divisional Round– Might be unfair to put this one in, but I never liked the Bucs Super Bowl odds once they were without AB and Godwin for the playoffs. With only Evans as his only reliable target, Brady struggled in the first half with only one reliable receiver. He more than made up for it in the 2nd half, however early it took them awhile to adjust to the Rams pass rush as they didn’t have their star tackle Tristain Wirfs, so the Rams hounded his backup and early it gave Brady lots of trouble. Without his plethora of weapons and early struggles to combat the pass rush, the Bucs couldn;t dig themselves out of a 27-3 hole enough.
Georgia vs Alabama National Championship-While Bryce Young is miles better than Stetson Bennett and Jameson Williams was the best receiver in the country, this Alabama team couldn’t run the ball like usual. They were outmatched at every area besides QB and receiver for the most part. They didn’t have the team they usually have as they still had stars like Will Anderson and Eva Neal, they were by no means a complete team, and this is why Georgia won, as Bryce Young is sorta like the Joe Burrow of that game, but his teams couldn’t help him enough to win. Similar to people buying into hype, people saw Bama as 2.5 point underdogs and pounced thinking how could Bama be underdogs, especially since they beat Georgia in the SEC Championship. However, this Bama team was just not up to their usual snuff, they didn’t have a star running back and weaker than usual secondary which was enough for them to lose. With the clear advantage at QB but not many advantages elsewhere, too much was placed on Bryce Young for Bama to win this game.
Clemson vs Ohio State 2021 CFP Semifinal- The main reason Clemson was favored in this one was because of their tandem of Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne. However, this Ohio State team was pretty much stronger at most of the other position groups, Clemson didn’t have elite NFL prospects elsewhere on offense and it showed. Lawrence’s receivers without Higgins, Renfrow, or Ross to help out Lawrence couldn’t get open. Another trend we see in games like this, Clemson doesn’t recruit offensive line as well as other elite programs, and in this game they ran for 44 yards. They also gave up 6 passing TDs as they didn’t have elite corners or safeties. This was an example of a game where people bought too much into the Trevor Lawrence hype and not enough was thought about the rest of Clemson’s roster.
These trends are similar to the Super Bowl as these scenarios gave examples of the better QB talent not getting it done as they have had worse teams around them than their opponent. Another trend in these games are offensive line problems with the losing team. Sounds sort of like this Super Bowl doesn’t it. With that said I’ll wrap up with how the Bengals can win this Super Bowl/
How the Bengals can win this Super Bowl
1. Burrow has outplayed Stafford these playoffs
These playoffs Burrow has been strong for the most part, Stafford has been good but not spectacular. If Burrow can continue his hot streak, maybe they can pull this out.
2. The Rams weak safety core finally catches up to them
While the Rams defense is strong, their starting safeties are not. One of them, Nick Scott, is a special teams player but has been thrust into the starting role as both of the teams starting safeties have been lost to the year. The other, Eric Weddle had been out of the NFL for two years before the playoffs, so maybe we see why the Bengals can get a deep ball by him.
In short, maybe the Bengals can’t get enough deep balls past this spotty safety core to make it more competitive.
