After a torrid start to the season, the Oklahoma City Thunder’s rapid development has sent shockwaves through the NBA, causing many people to begin calling for an “all-in” trade by GM Sam Presti.
The Thunder currently sit 2nd in the West at 22-9, and seem like legitimate contenders for the one seed. They are a young, talented team who is just scratching the surface of their potential. They are led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is having an MVP-caliber season, and two rising sophomores in Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams.
After a 2022-23 season which saw them exceed everyone’s preseason expectations, the Thunder have yet again reached a level nobody saw coming. Their title window seems to be creeping up on them much faster than anyone, even themselves, could have imagined.
In response to the expeditious acceleration of this young group, many fans and people around the league are ready for OKC to finally part ways with some of their draft picks in exchange for another star who can help them truly ascend to the upper echelon of the NBA.
The Thunder have stockpiled an unimaginable amount of draft picks for this exact situation. GM Sam Presti’s vision is finally coming to life, and it’s probably better than even he expected. They’ve got their franchise player, two complementary young studs, and the assets to find that extra piece that can bring their championship hopes to fruition.
When it comes to that “missing piece”, a couple names that have been thrown around are Lauri Markkanen and Pascal Siakam. They’re both former All-Stars on bad teams, and can surely fill some holes on this OKC roster, mainly their lack of frontcourt depth. The Thunder as currently constructed will undoubtedly run into some problems when they have to face these big, physical Western Conference foes (MIN, LAL, DEN). They struggle to rebound the ball, and as great as Chet Holmgren is, it’s a tough task for a guy of his stature to hold up against someone like Nikola Jokic in a seven-game series. Finding another high-caliber forward could prove to be just what this team needs.
But, their play in recent weeks, which has seen them beat the Nuggets (twice), Celtics, and Timberwolves, is starting to raise the question – is this team good enough to win a title as is?
It’s certainly an argument you could make right now as they are playing as good as anyone in the NBA. There’s a few things I look for when I consider whether a team is truly “in contention” for a title:
- Do they have a number one?: Someone who is capable of being the best player on a championship team, and going toe-to-toe with guys like Giannis, Jokic, Steph, etc.
- Are they elite, or can they be elite on both ends of the floor? Does a team have a certain end where they can be exposed, or will get exposed in a seven-game series. Can their play on either end be good enough to make up for an off night on the other end?
- How big is their margin for error, and can they withstand short-term injuries? Can the team win in different ways, and win games when certain key players miss time.
In my eyes, this current OKC team passes those tests. SGA is proving to be a truly elite offensive player, and an underrated defender. While he has yet to prove anything in the playoffs, I really think he’s good enough to be that guy right now. OKC currently has the #6 offense in the NBA, and the #2 defense.
They are elite on both ends, and certainly don’t have that one big weakness that can be exposed in the playoffs (or at least they haven’t shown it yet). Finally, I think the quick development of Chet Holmgren has really increased the margin of error for this team, both as a rim protector and secondary scorer. He is already one of the best defenders in the league, and his offensive game is improving every day.
The only thing that scares me a bit from a roster standpoint is, like I mentioned earlier, the lack of frontcourt depth. A one-game injury, or foul trouble for Chet could prove to be an issue for this group.
However, even after this glowing review of the Thunder, I still don’t see a world where they can win a title this year. It’s basically unheard of for a team with this little playoff experience to make a serious postseason run. Their top three players have yet to see a single minute of playoff action, and the only guy with any real playoff experience is Lu Dort.
In a loaded Western Conference, stuff like this is important. It’s hard to imagine them running through a potential gauntlet of Phoenix, Denver, Minnesota, and Boston in a two-month stretch (based off of current standings). I’m not saying they don’t have the talent or players to do this, but the lack of experience is a major red flag.
A big trade involving their slew of draft picks seems inevitable, so it feels like the Thunder have two options. First, they could make a deal at this year’s trade deadline and bring in an All-Star level forward.
This would give them a chance to make their first playoff run with some true aspirations, but more importantly would get them some playoff experience with their new roster in preparation for 2024-25, where they would be looked at as serious title favorites. Or, they could ride this season out with the current roster, and just see where it takes them.
It could be to the Finals, it could be to a first-round exit. This would give the front office a better idea of where the roster needs improvement, and what exactly they need to address before making that all-in move. I truly don’t think there is a wrong answer here, but I lean towards riding this season out with the current group. Maybe this team is good enough to win a title as is, or maybe they aren’t even close. You won’t ever know unless you find out, and I think it makes the most sense to do so.
