The first few weeks of a new NBA season can be nearly impossible to keep up with. Hot takes, overreactions, and close-minded assumptions blur the line between what’s real and what’s not. Championship contenders might get off to slow starts, while conference bottom-feeders may look the part of a playoff team for two weeks’ time. Deciding what early season trends have the potential to sustain themselves is always tough, but I gave it my best shot:
The Cavaliers are the second best team in the East: Sustainable
The Cavs have sprinted out of the gates to an 11-0 start, the best in franchise history. While a fairly soft schedule has benefited them early on, they look like a legitimate threat in the East. Much of their early success can be attributed to a balanced attack from their “core four” of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen.
Each member of the quartet is averaging at least fourteen points per game on solid efficiency while playing with an increased level of synergy on both ends of the floor. In 2023-24, the foursome played just 28 games together, logging a +2.2 net rating in their time on the court.
This year, the star-studded group of four has played all eleven games together, registering a +7.9 net rating. Internal improvements from Darius Garland and Evan Mobley have allowed for a weight to be taken off of Donovan Mitchell’s shoulders, and the offense is thriving because of it. It’s also worth noting that Cleveland has done this without their projected fifth starter, Max Strus.
There are still some real doubts about this group’s ability to perform in the playoffs, mainly due to the occasional awkwardness their closing lineup presents, but, for now, the Cavs look like a regular-season wins machine. If they can continue to build on their overall cohesion and stay healthy, I see no reason why they can’t be the team striving to take down the defending champs come May.
The Warriors are a legitimate threat in the West: Sustainable
Through 10 games, the Warriors sit at 8-2, tied for first in the Western Conference. Formidable road wins in Boston and Oklahoma City have helped legitimize their unexpected hot start and turn some heads around the league. But, the most encouraging sign for the Warriors is how they are doing it.
Steph Curry has only played 7 of the first 10 games and is averaging just 22.0 points per game. Not a single player on the roster is playing more than 30 minutes a night, and the Warriors are winning games with two sustainable traits: depth and defense. Steve Kerr has consistently played 10-12 man rotations to start the season, utilizing the overwhelming depth of his roster.
The group’s versatility allows for a plethora of lineup combinations, keeping the opposing squad on their toes for 48 minutes. Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green seem to be positively regressing to the players they were a few years ago, and the young guys have bought into their roles on both ends of the floor.
It’s still fair to question whether or not the Warriors have enough top-end talent outside of Curry to compete with teams like Oklahoma City and Dallas, but for now, they look as good as anyone in the league, and I’m buying into the hype. They have a superstar, extensive playoff experience, and the deepest roster in the league. I think they have a shot.
Milwaukee looks like a Play-In team: Not sustainable
It’s hard to imagine a team with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard having the second-worst record in the NBA, but that’s where the Bucks find themselves after a discouraging start to the season that has the entire league flummoxed. While some fans might be reaching for the panic button already, I feel more optimistic about Milwaukee’s situation. The Bucks have faced a relatively difficult slate of opponents thus far, including Boston twice, Cleveland twice, New York, and Memphis.
The 2-8 record is hard to argue for, but I truly don’t think they’ve played as badly as the record indicates. Three of the Bucks’ last four losses are by a combined total of nine points, against Cleveland and Boston. In these games, the flashes of high-level play are evident, but the consistency is lacking. Simply put, Milwaukee only has two reliable players in their lineup right now. Lillard and Antetokounmpo have had rock-solid starts to their individual seasons, but are struggling to find consistent, trustable players to bring along with them. Outside of Lillard and a few low-volume role players, nobody on the roster is shooting the ball remotely well.
It’s fair to assume that guys like Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, and Gary Trent Jr. will eventually find their rhythm on the offensive end, providing some more help for their dynamic duo. My belief in this team as a real championship contender is dwindling by the day, but I would be shocked if they don’t hit their stride sooner rather than later and cement themselves as a playoff-caliber team.
