The Sacramento Kings were on top of the world just eighteen months ago. After completing the franchise’s most successful regular season in nearly 20 years, the Kings took the defending champion Warriors to the brink in a first-round playoff matchup. The optimism surrounding the organization was as palpable as ever. Their core was in place, the fanbase was energized, and the future was bright.
Fast-forward eighteen months, and the Kings are in danger of fading into NBA irrelevancy once again. Sacramento, losers of seven of their last nine games, has started the season 10-13. The infectious excitement around the team is seemingly long gone as the Kings wade into the depths of the loaded Western Conference.
They now find themselves at a franchise-altering inflection point. Do the Kings feel confident enough in this group to continue chasing after titles? Or, does the front office feel like the ceiling has already been hit with this particular team? My breakdown of where the Kings are at, why they’re here, and what might be next.
Good, but not nearly good enough
Since acquiring Domantas Sabonis at the 2022 trade deadline, the Kings have a 100-79 (.558) regular season record when he and De’Aaron Fox both play. For perspective, that’s roughly a 46-win pace for an 82-game regular season. In the modern NBA, a 46-win team is a good team, and the Kings have been just that for the better part of the last three years.
But, being just “good” in the NBA is not always an appealing option. The Kings issue is that no matter how badly they want this group to reach true contender status, it doesn’t feel like a feasible outcome anymore.
The Kings’ shortcomings are not hard to find. It starts at the top with their star duo, De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. Fox is a streaky three-level scorer who is capable of taking over games in the blink of an eye, while Sabonis operates as a highly-skilled big who churns out double-doubles on a nightly basis. There’s no denying that there’s a lot of talent there.
But, there’s also no avoiding the obvious deficiencies. Even if NBA history didn’t suggest that it’s nearly impossible for a small guard to be the best player on a championship team (Shoutout to Steph Curry), Fox is far too streaky to be the number one option for a contender. He’s never shot over 37% from three in a season and has a fairly suboptimal shot diet for the modern NBA. Fox is a great player but might be overstretched as a primary creator in Sacramento.
Domantas Sabonis simply has too many limitations for a “co-star”. He’s long been one of the worst rim protectors in the league among centers, making life much more difficult for his teammates on defense. He’s not exactly a refined scorer or someone who is comfortable consistently creating their own shot. Sabonis is an extremely solid and talented player, just not one you feel confident in being your second best player in a playoff series.
The offseason acquisition of Demar Derozan made sense in theory, but hasn’t really moved the needle yet. The Kings were clearly hoping to bring in someone who could lessen the burden on De’Aaron Fox’s shot creation and provide them with another formidable shotmaker. Derozan fits the bill there, but doesn’t, and never did make sense with this Kings offense. When Sacramento had the best offense in the league in 2022-23, they did so by focusing on ball and player movement.
They relentlessly used Sabonis as a hub to direct all sorts of action, whether it be dribble handoffs, cuts, or screens away. Unless De’Aaron Fox had an enticing isolation opportunity, the ball was moving.
Throughout his 15-year NBA career, Derozan has always done his best work as a methodical isolation scorer. He thrives when he’s able to slowly get to his spots which often end up in the mid-range. As an off-ball creator, he’s rather limited due to his questionable three-point shooting. Derozan is not a guy that wants to be flying off screens or running ten DHO’s a night. His addition to this offense seems to put more reliance on tough shot-making rather than offense with a good, repeatable process like they formerly had.
The rest of the roster fails to fill in the holes the star trio leaves open. They are entirely too small, have struggled to shoot the ball, and don’t make up for the defensive deficits. Keegan Murray and Kevin Huerter are having two of the worst volume three-point shooting seasons in the entire league right now, and the Kings have just one of their five most frequent jump shooters hitting over 34% from downtown. In today’s NBA, that’s not going to cut it.
Outside of Keon Ellis who plays just 20.7 minutes per game, Sacramento struggles to find any sort of “defensive stopper” or player that can consistently guard at a high-level. Like I mentioned earlier, the lack of a true rim-protector makes life that much harder for your perimeter defense. A good roster composition will successfully complement your star’s abilities and be able to better hide their weaknesses. The Kings’ supporting cast is essentially doing neither of those right now.
Where do they go from here?
It’s become evident that Sacramento’s championship hopes are all but gone. The top-end talent isn’t strong enough, the supporting cast doesn’t actually seem to be supporting, and their identity is in limbo. So, where do the Kings go from here?
They have three realistic options that I expect them to consider:
- Give this group one more season together. See if they can rekindle their magic from 2022/23, and use their playoff push as an evaluation period.
- Trade De’Aaron Fox and other veteran assets for young players/draft capital and commit to a rebuild.
- Make some small changes to the current roster in hopes of maximizing this year’s championship potential.
I ranked these options based on how likely I think they are to happen.
The biggest question mark looming over all of these decisions is the uncertainty of De’Aaron Fox’s future. He recently declined the chance to extend his contract before the season started, opting to wait until this summer in hopes of cashing in on a lucrative supermax deal. He becomes an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2026, where if he were to choose not to extend this summer, he would be free to sign wherever he wanted.
The Kings’ confidence in Fox staying in Sacramento, and their level of optimism around him being a franchise cornerstone will drive any decision they make. If they sense any sort of notion that Fox might be looking to make his way out in the future, the Kings might look to trade him while they can. He would guarantee a fruitful return, setting the Kings up for the future without totally sinking to the bottom.
If they feel like Fox is committed long-term, then options one and three are most likely. The challenge for the Kings will be figuring out how to effectively build this team with two max contracts on their books (Sabonis, Fox). While there are certainly no “bad” max-contract players, you could argue that Fox and Sabonis are on the lower end of that group. It’s going to take more work to build around this duo than a more complete one such as Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Although it seems like the most obvious solution, bringing in a third All-Star caliber player is unrealistic due to salary limitations. Sacramento has four players making over $20 million for at least the next two seasons. If another large contract were to come in, one (or two) would have to go, triggering a likely lateral move. Bolstering the back-end depth of this roster is the easiest path to improving it. Finding guys who can consistently defend, knock down open shots, and complement the stars is a more sensible option.
I can pretty comfortably say that this current Kings team is nowhere close to true contention. Do they have the ability to be a solid team that makes the playoffs and wins a game or two? Sure. But what good does that do anyone? It’s not like this team is full of rising stars who need the playoff experience. They know who they are, what their limitations are, and what their ceiling is. Loitering in the middle of the league is a waste of time for a team of this nature.
But, I wouldn’t at all be surprised if that’s the future for them. The leftover excitement from two years ago will likely cloud the front office’s judgment, leading them to believe that this team is capable of more than they are. It feels like Sacramento is just happy to be doing anything that’s not another rebuild, even if that makes more sense. The path to improving this roster is extremely unclear, whether it be internally or externally.
The Kings are trying to make their way to the top, but find themselves stuck in the elevator with no good way out.
