We are two weeks into the college basketball season so it is time for ridiculous overreactions. I am just kidding but within the 4-5 games each prospect has played there are still data points that can lead to an overall evaluation.
I have yet to change any of my thoughts too drastically but I thought it would be fun to do a mock draft and think through each pick through the lens of each team.
Since it is so early in the season and every team has played different schedules in terms of competition I used Dunks and Threes adjusted net rating chart to establish the lottery order before simulating it. This hopefully gives us a closer look into who will be picking where come next June.
In addition to the full first-round mock, I offered some analysis for each of the lottery picks and why each team would make that selection.
1. Utah Jazz: Cooper Flagg
| School: Duke | Position: Forward | NBA Role: All-Defense w/ Primary Offense Potential |
| Draft Day Age: 18.50 | Height: 6’9 | Weight: 205 lbs |
Was there any doubt? Cooper Flagg had all of the hype before the season and so far he has lived up to it. The Utah Jazz have built a nice roster but are in search of their superstar player next to Markkanen and Flagg slides in nicely.
Boasting a 6% block rate Flagg has been terrific defensively to start the season. Offensively Flagg has been good at getting to the hoop, finishing, and creating for others. Through the first 4 games, Flagg is an underwhelming 4/19 (21.1%) from 3.
The jump shot will be the ultimate swing skill for Flagg this season. I fully expect the shot to start falling more throughout this season but the exact production could determine the star upside. Flagg does not turn 18 until December 21st so his production at such a young age also needs to be factored in.
2. Portland Trail Blazers: Dylan Harper
| School: Rutgers | Position: Guard | NBA Role: Offensive Engine |
| Draft Day Age: 19.30 | Height: 6’6 | Weight: 220 lbs |
Portland has guys at every position so at some point they simply need to just take the best player available with the #2 overall pick. This pick steps on the toes of Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons but at this stage of their franchise, they simply have to continue to accumulate talent.
Harper has been running the show for Rutgers so far this season shooting 57.5% from the field with 3.7 assists per game. The playmaking has been impressive so far but I will be monitoring how his assist % fluctuates as they play better competition.
3. Charlotte Hornets: VJ Edgecombe
| School: Baylor | Position: Wing | NBA Role: Athletic 3 and D wing |
| Draft Day Age: 19.89 | Height: 6’5 | Weight: 180 lbs |
A couple of bad games will not scare me off of VJ Edgecombe. He was fantastic this summer for Team Bahamas as a three-level scorer and breath-taking athlete I won’t be able to shake that unless there is a large sample size of Edgecombe struggling.
An athletic off-ball wing is a great fit next to LaMelo and Brandon Miller. At some point, Charlotte has to move up the stages of their rebuild and Edgecombe can help with that. No different than Flagg or Harper, Edgecombe has struggled to shoot from deep to start the season so that is the key thing to monitor with him the rest of the season.
4. Washington Wizards: Egor Demin
| School: BYU | Position: Guard?? | NBA Role: Jumbo guard with defensive versatality |
| Draft Day Age: 19.30 | Height: 6’9 | Weight: 190 lbs |
Arguably the prospect that has played the best to start the season. A 6’9 guard who can initiate offense, and create for others, and so far this season shoot is a highly attractive prospect for NBA teams. Demin is 8/16 from 3 to start the season after shooting below 30% last season in Europe.
Demin is the perfect fit in Washington playing with Carrington, Sarr, and Coulibaly. Lineups with those four offer a great blend of playmaking, self-creation, and defense with all of them having upside perimeter shooting.
5. Toronto Raptors: Ace Bailey
| School: Rutgers | Position: Forward | NBA Role: Jumbo shot maker |
| Draft Day Age: 18.85 | Height: 6’8 | Weight: 200 lbs |
I understand some have Ace Bailey as high as #2 but he is not a good enough self-creator for me to put him that high. The shotmaking at his size is as impressive as it gets but Michael Porter Jr. and Jabari Smith are examples of just where the ceiling is when they are not separation creators.
This pick is very much up Toronto’s alley picking jumbo wings like Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, and Jonathon Mogbo. Bailey could play off of Barnes and Quickley and operate more as a play finisher especially early in his career. Although he lacks the creation, Bailey is a good rebounder and a solid overall defender.
6. Brooklyn Nets: Kasparas Jakucionis
| School: Illinois | Position: Guard | NBA Role: Sharpshooting lead playmaker |
| Draft Day Age: 19.06 | Height: 6’6 | Weight: 205 lbs |
Kasparas has done a little bit of everything so far this season running the show for the Illini. Before this season, Kasparas was known as a sharpshooter with some playmaking potential but so far this season the shooting is the one thing he has struggled with.
The Lithuanian is shooting just 25% from 3 but his shooting history suggests that should not be a concern. As the lead guard, Kasparas averages 7.7 assists a game and a crazy 41% assist rate. Additionally, he is getting over 6 rebounds a game paired with solid defense.
Cam Thomas has been electric so far this season but the team needs more steady offensive creation outside of the 31-year-old Dennis Schroder. Kasparas can play next to Cam Thomas or any other star (Giannis) that they can acquire this offseason. The Nets have righted their rebuilding ship and Kasparas could be step 1 of their new phase.
7. Detroit Pistons: Tre Johnson
| School: Texas | Position: Guard | NBA Role: Elite self creator |
| Draft Day Age: 19.29 | Height: 6’6 | Weight: 184 lbs |
To start this season Tre Johnson has unquestionably been the best scorer in this draft. His numbers don’t seem real averaging 25.3 PPG on 57-58-80. Clearly those numbers aren’t repeatable but he has shown his ability to score is among the best in this class which is something Detroit needs.
Cade Cunningham runs the show in Detroit but it would not hurt to have another end-of-shot clock player. What does this mean for Jaden Ivey?? I am not sure but he is up for an extension next fall so Tre Johnson may be viewed as a better option. All of the top choices left at this point are known as scorers so why not take who has been so far the best one?
8. Chicago Bulls: Kon Knueppel
| School: Duke | Position: Wing | NBA Role: Sharpshooter capable of scoring inside arc |
| Draft Day Age: 19.88 | Height: 6’7 | Weight: 217 lbs |
Chicago has been a fun team to start the season so who knows, maybe they pick lower than this. With that being said the Bulls need more wing-scoring to play next to Coby White and Zach LaVine. The Bulls began to fix this by drafting Matas Buzelis but
Knueppel helps address that shooting 38.5% from 3 on over 6 attempts a game. Kon is not a one-trick pony, he is capable of scoring the ball even when he is run off the line. He is shooting a bleak 47.8% from 2 so that will be something to monitor the rest of the season that could determine if he is a top ten pick or not.
9. San Antonio Spurs (via ATL): Nolan Traore
| Team: Saint-Quentin (France) | Position: Guard | NBA Role: Offensive lead guard |
| Draft Day Age: 19.06 | Height: 6’3 | Weight: 175 lbs |
Nolan Traore has his limitations with a skinny frame and as a defensive liability but that gets minimized playing next to Victor Wembanyama. Traore has not been efficient so far this season but I would expect those numbers to go back up as he gets used to playing against grown men.
Stephon Castle has been really good but the Spurs still lack a true point guard. Traore immediately takes that role and has all of the playmaking skills necessary to fill that role. I have soured a lot on Traore over the last few months but if San Antonio is the landing spot it is much easier to see how he will succeed.
10. New Orleans Pelicans: Carter Bryant
| School: Arizona | Position: Wing | NBA Role: Modern wing (dribble, pass, shoot) |
| Draft Day Age: 19.58 | Height: 6’8 | Weight: 225 lbs |
This will come as a surprise to many but I am a big fan of Carter Bryant. The Pelicans are hoping they will not be picking this high in the draft but their 4-10 start shows trouble in New Orleans. Carter Bryant provides New Orleans with complimentary basketball similar to that provided by Aaron Nesmith in Indiana.
Playing time will be very hard for Carter Bryant to earn but his high school film indicates there is a good prospect there. He is 2/9 from 3 to start the season but that is too small of a sample size for me to sound any alarms especially because he has done a little bit of everything else.
11. San Antonio Spurs: Kanon Catchings
| School: BYU | Position: Wing | NBA Role: Athletic 3 and D wing |
| Draft Day Age: 19.87 | Height: 6’9 | Weight: 190 lbs |
The Spurs got their point guard now swing for the fences. Kanon Catchings is one of the best athletes in this draft and last season in OTE he shot over 40% from 3. If Kanon can shoot 37%+ from three this year it will not be a hot take at all to have him in the lottery of a mock draft.
Catchings isn’t an elite creator but it is not from a lack of athleticism or creativity. As Catchings’s game matures I would not be shocked to see his game outside of 3 and D starts to develop more. So far this season he is averaging over 25 minutes a game so if he does not blossom the way I envision it does not appear it will be from lack of opportunity.
12. Atlanta Hawks (via LAL): Drake Powell
| School: North Carolina | Position: Wing | NBA Role: Athletic 3 and D Wing |
| Draft Day Age: 19.78 | Height: 6’5 | Weight: 185 lbs |
6’5, productive shooter, and elite vertical athlete, there are plenty of reasons to like Drake Powell. Powell has not been very sharp to start the season but we have seen this story many times from young freshman prospects. North Carolina is a really good team but I would expect Powell to continue to get playing time and come more into his own throughout the season.
All of a sudden Atlanta is a lot of fun with young wings like Jalen Johnson, Zaccharie Risacher, and Dyson Daniels. Drake Powell adds to this group and gives the Hawks a versatile group of shooters and defenders that seems to be the direction the NBA is heading. The youth and versatility make me believe the Hawks could move on from Trae Young sooner rather than later.
13. Houston Rockets (via PHX): Alex Karaban
| School: UConn | Position: Wing | NBA Role: Elite 3 and D Wing |
| Draft Day Age: 22.61 | Height: 6’7.75 | Weight: 219 lbs |
This is a shock to some but I absolutely love this fit. The Rockets rank 28th in 3-point shooting so far this season and 25th in 3-point shot distribution and Karaban helps fix that. At nearly 6’8, Karaban has started the season scorching hot from 3 and is showing more self-creation skills than he did last season.
Karaban’s calling card is shooting but he is a solid defender, a capable passer, and a solid rebounder. The creation workload in Houston rests primarily on Jalen Green, Alperan Sengun, and some of the other young budding stars they have. Karaban is often thought to be a later draft pick but the fit in Houston is perfect and people are too quick to put a ceiling on what he can be.
14. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC): Collin Murray-Boyles
| School: South Carolina | Position: Big | NBA Role: High-level 2-way connector |
| Draft Day Age: 20.03 | Height: 6’7 | Weight: 231 lbs |
In a bizarre situation, the Thunder pick 14th, 15th, and 16th in this mock. I have them going with a guard, big, and wing in Boogie Fland, Collin Murray-Boyles, and Will Riley respectively. Collin Murray-Boyles has clear flaws but makes a lot of sense in Oklahoma City.
An undersized big, Murray-Boyles will need to play next to a lot of shooting in order for the spacing to work out. The Thunder provide just that where he can play in lineups next to Chet and they can still have 4 shooters on the floor. Murray-Boyles is also very good at immediately playing to the next action which is the Thunder’s brand of basketball.
15. Oklahoma City Thunder (via PHI): Will Riley
| School: Illinois | Position: Wing | NBA Role: Shooting wing with ball handling potential |
| Draft Day Age: 19.36 | Height: 6’8 | Weight: 195 lbs |
16. Oklahoma City Thunder (via MIA): Boogie Fland
| School: Arkansas | Position: Guard | NBA Role: Shot creating microwave guard |
| Draft Day Age: 18.95 | Height: 6’2 | Weight: 175 lbs |
17. Indiana Pacers: Asa Newell
| School: Georgia | Position: Big | NBA Role: Versatile defender with play-finishing offense |
| Draft Day Age: 19.71 | Height: 6’10 | Weight: 205 lbs |
18. New Orleans Pelicans (via MIL): Khaman Maluach
| School: Duke | Position: Big | NBA Role: Project with defensive upside |
| Draft Day Age: 18.76 | Height: 7’2 | Weight: 250 lbs |
19. Atlanta Hawks (via SAC): Ben Saraf
| Team: Ulm (Germany) | Position: Guard | NBA Role: Heliocentric offensive creator |
| Draft Day Age: 19.18 | Height: 6’5 | Weight: 200 lbs |
20. Memphis Grizzlies: Jarin Stevenson
| School: Alabama | Position: Forward | Role: 3 and D forward with creation upside |
| Draft Day Age: 19.69 | Height: 6’11 | Weight: 210 lbs |
21. Utah Jazz (via MIN): Liam McNeeley
| School: UConn | Position: Wing | Role: Sharpshooter |
| Draft Day Age: 19.69 | Height: 6’8 | Weight: 185 lbs |
22. Orlando Magic: Dink Pate
| Team: Mexico City | Position: Guard | Role: Jack of all trades jumbo guard |
| Draft Day Age: 19.28 | Height: 6’8 | Weight: 210 lbs |
23. Orlando Magic (via DEN): Kwame Evans
| School: Oregon | Position: Forward | Role: Jumbo 3 and D forward |
| Draft Day Age: 20.88 | Height: 6’9 | Weight: 200 lbs |
24. Brooklyn Nets (via HOU): Noa Essengue
| Team: Ulm (Germany) | Position: Forward | Role: Versatile defender/rebounder |
| Draft Day Age: 18.50 | Height: 6’9 | Weight: 194 lbs |
25. Brooklyn Nets (via NYK): Hugo Gonzalez
| Team: Real Madrid (Spain) | Position: Wing | Role: Ball handler and defensive stopper |
| Draft Day Age: 19.37 | Height: 6’6 | Weight: 207 lbs |
26. Dallas Mavericks: Hunter Sallis
| School: Wake Forest | Position: Wing | Role: Shooter with small role ball handling |
| Draft Day Age: 22.24 | Height: 6’4.75 | Weight: 179 lbs |
27. Golden State Warriors: Ryan Kalkbrenner
| School: Creighton | Position: Big | Role: Rim deterrent with good offensive footwork |
| Draft Day Age: 23.42 | Height: 7’1.75 | Weight: 252 lbs |
28. Utah Jazz (via CLE): Zeke Mayo
| School: Kansas | Position: Guard | Role: Second unit lead guard |
| Draft Day Age: 22.52 | Height: 6’4 | Weight: 185 lbs |
29. Boston Celtics: Nique Clifford
| School: Colorado State | Position: Wing | Role: Do it all wing |
| Draft Day Age: 23.37 | Height: 6’6 | Weight: 200 lbs |
30. Los Angeles Clippers (via OKC): Ian Jackson
| School: North Carolina | Position: Guard | Role: Advantage creating guard |
| Draft Day Age: 20.35 | Height: 6’4 | Weight: 180 lbs |
Top 2nd Round Picks: Rocco Zikarsky (Brisbane), Isaiah Evans (Duke), Derik Queen (Maryland), Flory Bidunga (Kansas), Jalil Bethea (Miami), Joson Sanon (Arizona State)
