The season is getting closer with only 36 days until the start of the NBA season and less than that until international basketball starts.
This week we cover 3 prospects playing college basketball this season and two international prospects. All players covered this week were asked for in the comments so let me know who you would like me to cover in #5.
If you missed the other parts of this series check them out here! Part 1, Part 2, Part 3.
Read until the end to see the updated big board with now the 20 players I have watched ranked!
Derrion Reid, Forward, Alabama
Derrion Reid is the epitome of putting pressure on the rim. Over six rim attempts a game, just under 60% at the rim, and over one dunk a game are all great examples of where Reid excels. He is very active at the rim with rebounds and tip-ins. Because of his 6’8 chiseled frame, it is hard to box him out which leads to over 6 rebounds a game.
Reid’s finishing clip drops to a slightly below-average 51% when you just consider layups. This is something I will monitor next season at Alabama because his NBA role is more of a forward so if he can’t finish at the rim there is a ceiling for him.
Something else I look forward to seeing is how Reid progresses as a playmaker. Reid makes some good passes and is capable of making quick reads. Over the last 18 months, Reid has consistently improved as a playmaker from EYBL to Prolific Prep to Team USA. Below is the graph showing his progress as a playmaker.
| Season | AST/TO | AST % |
| EYBL | 0.73 | 10.7% |
| High School | 0.94 | 11.7% |
| Team USA | 1.67 | 13.9% |
This will never be a big part of his game but something that could make him a bigger offensive threat.
Reid is simply an off-ball player with all of his actions being off rebounds, cuts, or immediate decisions off the catch. His handle leaves some to be desired on the ball but he can attack closeouts and get downhill.
Derrion Reid’s shot is by no means broken but long term I don’t see it becoming much more than solid. Reid shot 32% from 3 on 2.3 3PA/G and 70% from the free throw line. The touch isn’t very good and he does not have the volume to warrant high-level projections. Alabama is the perfect spot for him because of how much they stress and develop 3-point shooting.
Defensively, Reid is good but in the NBA he seems like a sort of tweener. As a strong forward, Reid can guard bigger players to a degree but he struggles when players are both physical and bigger than him.
There are some off-ball mistakes Alabama will have to clean up such as going under every single screen and helping way too far over off the ball. On the ball, Reid is very good, and because of his athleticism and foot speed, he should be able to switch onto smaller guards in a switching scheme.
Derrion Reid will be a good college player but for him to be a pro it will take multiple years and a lot of development. For the 2024 draft, I do not buy it and he will not be far up my board.
Ben Saraf, Guard, Ulm (Germany)
Ben Saraf seemed to be a fringe NBA prospect until an incredible U18 tournament this summer for Team Israel. At the tournament, Saraf averaged: 27.9 points, 5.3 assists, 5.0 rebounds, 4.0 steals, and 1 block a game while shooting 44.4% from the field and 36.2% from 3. That is an elite, high-usage production that few players can match while maintaining relative efficiency (55% TS%).
Saraf has a good frame for NBA success at 6’6 with long arms and broad shoulders. I project it will be easy for Saraf to add weight with the right training which will put him right on par with other NBA wings. Saraf does not turn 19 until next April so there is plenty of room for him to grow as a prospect.
The Israeli has a great handle at his size and is capable of initiating the offense in half-court. I wouldn’t go as far as calling Saraf a point guard but he is more than capable of handling the responsibilities for periods of time. Saraf has some wiggle to his game and loves to get back to small step-backs both of which could indicate creativity as a creator.
Saraf is a high-usage player who is used to playing with the ball. He is shifty and creative with the ball capable of getting to the rim or shooting off the dribble. During the U18 tournament, Saraf got to the rim over 8 times a game and shot 7 dribble jumpers a game. It is incredibly rare to shoot at that high of a volume for both of those categories but that shows just how high volume Saraf is used to playing at (21.6 FGA/G).
His jump shot will be an incredibly important thing to watch this season. Before the U18 tournament, Saraf was not a very productive shooter but his 36% during the tournament on almost 7 attempts shows a lot of progress. He does not have elite touch like some of the NBA’s heliocentric players but it is good enough around the rim and at the free-throw line that becoming a good shooter is not out of the question.
The playmaking is actually very solid. A lot of Saraf’s assist totals are the result of his high minutes and usage but overall he is somewhere between a 16% and 23% assist rate player which is very solid. A 2.0 assist-to-turnover ratio is very good and shows his ability to take care of the ball, and he is a good enough athlete to create advantages that ultimately make reads that much easier.
I was surprised to watch a high-usage offensive player such as Saraf actually be a pretty solid defender. Saraf’s long arms and wide body help him get in passing lanes or tip shots. He moves his feet very well on this side of the ball and I don’t have too many concerns about him being able to guard NBA wings.
Overall, Saraf is a tough evaluation at this point because it seems like two different prospects in the U18 tournament and before the tournament. He has an incredibly wide range of outcomes from being a heliocentric offensive engine that could be a top 5 pick or a raw poor shooter that can not play off the ball and is not selected.
Will Riley, Wing, Illinois
There is a lot to be intrigued about with Will Riley and at 6’8, he looks great on a spreadsheet. Although he is very skinny, Riley is long and projects to be a decent NBA athlete. Watching Riley I am reminded a lot of Kyshawn George a wing from Miami when I watch Will Riley’s game.
Will Riley projects as a great shooter both in the NBA and college. During his 23 high school games Riley shot 40% from 3 on 5 attempts a game, 48% off the catch, and 77% from the free throw line. The form has some slight kinks but overall is pretty solid and at 6’8 these are great shooting indicators.
Riley is a very smart passer and often initiated actions last season. I wouldn’t call his playmaking “special” or anything earth-shattering but it is very solid coming from a wing. He averaged over 4 assists a game with a 1.46 assist-turnover ratio. Riley is good at seeing open men and even shows some creativity in his pass types.
He is very active on both ends of the floor and his rebounding is pretty solid at such a young age. Defensively, he is overall pretty good. The length and size help a lot and he has the footwork/foot speed to keep up with smaller players on the perimeter. There is some off-ball polish needed for him to be a great defender but at this stage that applies to almost everyone.
Everything I said is very good but so much of it is inconsistent or hypothetical. Will Riley is very raw constantly making silly mistakes, turning it over, traveling, or taking horrible shots. His frame is pretty weak as it is now which leads to him shooting a poor 49% from 2 and 51% on layups.
We have seen these types of players quickly develop and become 1st round picks and we have seen these types of players take years to become the player they are meant to be. Illinois has a really solid roster so minutes won’t be spoon-fed to him next season. I want to love Will Riley but as of now, there are too many leaps he has to make before I can buy in.
Asa Newell, Forward, Georgia
Asa Newell is an incredibly fluid 6’9 long athlete. A very good athlete, Newell is an above-the-rim finisher and it shows in the numbers. Last season at Montverde Newell finished 72.8% at the rim and 64.3% on layups. Newell is a constant lob threat with nearly 2 dunks a game last season. Newell needs to put on weight but he fights inside and is slippery enough to get to the open spot leading to over 6 RPG.
The play finishing is good but Newell’s calling card should be his defense. Ideally, Newell can operate as a small ball 5 of sorts but he needs to get bigger for that to happen. For the time being, Newell is good on the ball and does a good job keeping up on the perimeter with forwards.
Newell is not yet a rim protector but there is potential because of how smart he is and his length. He was also very successful as a drop coverage big for Montverde although it becomes a lot easier when you have Cooper Flagg roaming.
Asa Newell’s shot is a very interesting case study because his production so far contradicts some indicators. At Montverde, he shot 41.7% from 3 all off the catch but that number becomes more questionable when you mix in that was under 2 attempts a game and he shot 51.6% from the free throw line.
The touch overall is not very good both at the free throw line and on touch shots at the rim. Watching his free throws he has some truly horrible misses that show a lack of touch or replication. The shot itself looks solid but I can’t buy him becoming more than a mid to low 30’s three-point shooter just because of how bad the touch is.
Although Newell does a good job not turning the ball over he is not much of a playmaker for others and mostly is an off-ball player. Georgia does not project to be a great team next season so it will be interesting to see if Newell is set up in a way that lets his offensive game shine.
Noa Essengue, Forward, Ulm (Germany)
Another prospect who hit the public light and moved up people’s boards because of a great U18 tournament. Noa Essengue has a lot of similarities to Asa Newell as a 6’9, very fluid athletic forward. Essengue’s motor is the basis for his hype but as of now, I can not buy into him too much as a prospect.
Noa Essengue is a high-effort, high-activity, high-motor player and you do not have to watch much film to see that. During U18’s Essengue averaged 7 rebounds, over 1 steal, just under 1 block, got to the line almost 8 times a game, had nearly 8 rim attempts a game, and 2 dunks per game. These are all ELITE activity numbers that show Essengue’s ability to be active even without scoring.
Essengue is a very good defender using his length and athleticism he is able to keep up with quicker guards very well. He does a very good job switching on the perimeter because of his athleticism which prevents teams from mismatch-hunting. Paire with the activity and overall the defense is very good.
I don’t fully buy into Essengue yet because of just how much of an off-ball player he is. Currently, he is a bad shooter who checks none of the necessary boxes. He shot 8% from 3 during the U18s on low volume and 69% from the free throw line. The touch around the rim leaves a lot to be desired shooting just 51.6% on layups.
Offensively, he is almost completely off-ball because of his lack of shooting and playmaking. It is hard for me to buy the whole Swiss army knife role just because of how the NBA prioritizes creation and shooting now.
Running Big Board
- Cooper Flagg, Forward, Duke
- VJ Edgecombe, Wing, Baylor
- Ace Bailey, Wing, Rutgers
- Dylan Harper, Guard, Rutgers
- Nolan Traore, Guard, Saint-Quentin (France)
- Drake Powell, Wing, North Carolina
- Hugo Gonzalez, Wing, Real Madrid (Spain)
- Carter Bryant, Wing, Arizona
- Ben Saraf, Guard, Ulm (Germany)
- Kasparas Jukucionis, Guard, Illinois
- Egor Demin, Forward, BYU
- Jarin Stevenson, Forward, Alabama
- Liam McNeeley, Wing, UConn
- Asa Newell, Forward, Georgia
- Will Riley, Wing, Illinois
- Karter Knox, Wing, Arkansas
- Donnie Freeman, Forward, Syracuse
- Boogie Fland, Guard, Arkansas
- Noa Essengue, Forward, Ulm (Germany)
- Derrion Reid, Forward, Alabama
Big Board Debates
I stated this in his paragraph but Ben Saraf is so hard to rank. If I am solely ranking the U18’s he is probably #6 but if I am excluding the U18’s he is last. For the time being, I am cautiously buying the U18’s as development so I leave him behind some wings that have skills I feel good about but above some very talented prospects.
