The 2025 NBA Draft is 308 days away but it is never too early to start scouting. The 2024 Draft was a unique cycle and without a sure-fire superstar, many were quick to call it a weak draft. Plenty of value will arise from the 2024 draft (and most likely a superstar) but it wasn’t as plain to see as recent drafts.
This draft is much different. It appears to share the same depth and high-end role players as the last draft, but it is the high-end stars that will make this cycle fun.
Each week I will watch players in this cycle and share my thoughts. This draft seems to be forming a rough pre-season top 5 so in this week’s notebook I cover those 5 players.
At the end of each notebook, I will update my running big board rankings adding whoever is covered in that edition.
Cooper Flagg, Forward, Duke
Cooper Flagg is the top prospect in the upcoming draft and for good reason. Flagg who doesn’t turn 18 until December was the second-best player on the Team USA Select team that was full of NBA players.
Flagg’s two-way ability is what brings the hype. His best skill is his defense as a 6’9 rim protector and talented on-ball defender. He plays much bigger than his size with broad shoulders and an impressive amount of strength at his size and age.
Offensively, Flagg is no weakness. He handles the ball well, finishes around the rim at a high level, and doesn’t turn the ball over. Flagg got to the rim consistently and finished 69.4% at the rim dating back to his last EYBL season. His shot looks a little funky but he shot 35.4% from 3 and just under 82% from the free throw line which shows good signs of capable production as a shooter.
At this point, Cooper Flagg is the easy #1 prospect on my board. Flagg was the best high school player in the country each of the last two seasons even though he reclassed up a year after his sophomore year. Flagg is an All-NBA level defender and a really talented offensive talent. Only three players (KD, Davis, Zion) have won Player of the Year as a freshman but Cooper Flagg has a real chance.
Ace Bailey, Wing, Rutgers
Ace Bailey’s skills at his size are incredibly entertaining. At 6’10, Bailey is highly skilled with the ball in his hands creating his own shot. The following is the Point Per Shot (PPS) on dribble jumpers and Dribble Jumpers per Game (DJ/G) for each of the five players in this piece over the last 16ish months.
Ace Bailey takes nearly 2.5x more dribble jumpers a game than any other top-tier prospect in this cycle. Traditionally more dribble jumpers aren’t a great thing as it is generally a less efficient shot but Bailey shot that volume while also being the most efficient shooter out of the group.
Ideally, I would love Bailey to turn 2-3 of those attempts into rim attempts or catch-and-shoot 3s but currently, he uses the dribble jumper as an efficient weapon that few players can do consistently.
Bailey is a ridiculous 80% at the rim and is as polished as a 3-level scorer as anyone else in this cycle. It will be about if he can hold his high level efficiency and what else he can pair that with that determines where he goes in the draft.
At 6’10, Bailey is a very good rebounder but leaves a lot to be desired as a playmaker. Defensively, Bailey is solid but as his offensive load decreases I want to see more high end flashes with his tools.
Nolan Traore, Guard, Saint-Quentin (France)
Nolan Traore is one of the hottest names of the summer after his terrific Adidas Next Generation Tournament performance. Traore is listed at 6’4, 175 lbs but his frame is small which is the first thing that jumps out when you watch him, he just appears small. With that being said there is plenty to like about Traore as he is a consensus top 5 pick in this draft.
I am confident in Traore as a shooter, especially in the long term. He doesn’t shoot at a high clip just yet but the volume, level of difficulty, touch, and range are all great signs that he will be a good shooter. Although I wouldn’t call Traore a great athlete he has a very good burst that helps him create his advantages.
With those advantages, he is a deadly creator for others. According to synergy at the Next Gen tournament, Traore boasted a 34.6% assist rate. In the tournament, he averaged 9 assists a game while running the offense for France. A big swing question I have about Traore is how special of a playmaker is he. Is he one of the truly special ones? Can he be similar to fellow Frenchman Tony Parker? Haliburton?
Traore is not much of a vertical athlete with few dunks and a lower rim attempt rate than the other 4 in this edition. Defensively, Traore’s frame will put a ceiling on what he can be outside of pesky.
I like Traore, but between the frame, and lack of elite athleticism it is hard for me to fully buy in unless he is one of the truly special creators. Traore will not side far on my board but I prefer the two-way abilities of the others on this list at this point.
VJ Edgecombe, Wing, Baylor
VJ Edgecombe is ELECTRIC! Edgecombe is an elite scorer who has shown an ability to produce against high-level talent. This summer Edgecombe played for Team Bahamas during the Olympic qualifying and was productive averaging 14.3 points on 58% true shooting percentage.
Edgecombe’s athleticism is explosive and is the first thing that pops out on film. He is capable of getting to the rim virtually at will and once he is in the paint he is a consistent dunk threat. There have been some concerns about his handle but I do not see it that way. Edgecombe is creative with the ball in his hands and if he can tighten up the handle with natural progression he will be fine.
The defense is inconsistent which seems to be a recurring theme with high school players but his measurables and athleticism will give him a high floor as a defender.
His shot is passable but it would not be shocking for him to struggle next season from a farther line and better defenses. The form is just fine but his touch on pull-up shots and very good free throw percentage (85%) make me not too worried long term.
Elite athletes who can contribute in ways on both sides of the floor almost always work in the NBA. I see some Victor Oladipo in VJ Edgecombe’s game with his two-way ability and slashing offensive game. Baylor hopes to be a national title contender and Edgecombe will be a big part of that.
Dylan Harper, Guard, Rutgers
One of the more divisive players of the cycle, the disagreement on Harper is just what exactly is his ceiling. Harper is a complete offensive creator, he controls the offense and has a good handle paired with just under a 2.0 assist-to-turnover ratio.
On drives, Harper is shifty getting to the rim with 7.35 rim attempts a game (highest of this group). He is patient in the paint, able to create a lot of space with advanced footwork. Harper is a pretty solid athlete which helps him finish in transition and allows an extra level of creativity by the basket.
The BIG swing skill (the difference between #2 on my board and #4) for Harper is just where exactly is his shot? Let’s look at the good and bad of the shot. All stats from synergy dating back to the start of his last EYBL season.
The Good
- Shoots the ball with confidence
- Aesthetically looks good
- Shot 5.3 threes a Game
- Has great touch around the rim
The Bad
- Shot just over 32% from 3
- Rough 68.6% from the free throw line
Overall with the shot I believe in it but because of such poor 3-point shooting and free throw shooting I need to see it at Rutgers this season before I buy into him as a complete offensive package.
Defensively Harper is a little bit of a work in progress but by no means bad. Harper’s size, length, and athleticism give him a good base to work with and ensure he won’t be picked on. He has moments in isolation of moving his feet and staying in front well but he is relatively lazy.
Off-ball Harper zones out too often currently. When guarding screens he loves to lay on screens that take him out of plays or jump at things that take him out of plays. None of those things are too abnormal for 18 year olds but would love to see strides at the next level.
As far as comps go, it is tough without knowing the full extent of the jump shot but players like Jalen Brunson or De’Aaron Fox make some sense as primary ball handlers or Jamal Murray and Coby White as secondary scorers (outcome if shot stagnates).
Running Big Board
- Cooper Flagg, Forward, Duke
- VJ Edgecombe, Wing, Baylor
- Ace Bailey, Wing, Rutgers
- Dylan Harper, Guard, Rutgers
- Nolan Traore, Guard, Saint-Quentin (France)
