One of the most interesting and heavily discussed parts of an NBA season is the award race. Each year brings with it new candidates, storylines, and narratives. While the new games-played requirement has made a few awards a bit trickier to forecast, it’s always fun to take a stab at predicting who will etch their name in NBA history in the forthcoming season. Here are my award predictions for the 2024/25 season:
Most Valuable Player: Luka Doncic
2023/24 Stats: 33.9 PPG – 9.8 APG -9.2 RPG – 61.7 TS%
After being named an MVP finalist for the first time last season, Doncic seems primed to make a real push at the award this year. It’s a safe bet to assume Luka will flirt with averaging a triple-double once again, and he’s sure to have his fair share of “MVP moments”.
Perhaps last year’s NBA Finals run gives him more credibility in the eyes of some voters who seemed to discount his head-turning stat lines. While I do believe in Doncic’s ability to rightfully win the award and have an MVP season, my pick is also influenced by his competition, or lack thereof.
I have an extremely hard time believing voters will choose Jokic to win his fourth MVP award in five seasons, even if he’s deserving. Joel Embiid will certainly have the numbers to compete, but the new games-played requirement diminishes his chances. Jayson Tatum and Anthony Edwards will be the best players on very good teams, but likely won’t have the numbers to compete with Doncic.
In my eyes, the biggest threats for MVP this year are Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Giannis Antetokounmpo (and Joel Embiid if he magically stays healthy). So, give me Luka for MVP this season. Outrageous numbers on a good team is a tough combo to beat, and I think it’s finally his time.
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama
2023/24 Stats: 21.4 PPG – 10.6 RPG – 3.6 BPG – 1.2 SPG
At the young age of 20, Victor Wembanyama has already cemented himself as one of the most elite rim deterrents in the history of the NBA. Never have I seen so many players afraid to even think about taking a shot as I did last year while watching opposing offenses against Wembanyama.
Despite the Spurs’ abysmal record last season, Wemby almost became the first rookie to ever win Defensive Player of the Year. He managed to elevate the Spurs’ defense at an unprecedented level, improving their defense by 7 points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor. With a bit more team success and a season of NBA experience under his belt, Wembanyama feels like a lock to win this award, and he might start piling them up very, very quickly.
Most Improved Player: Brandon Miller
2023/24 Stats: 17.3 PPG – 4.3 RPG – 2.4 APG – 55.2 TS%
Most Improved Player has become one of the tougher awards to predict, and the criteria for winning the award has changed drastically. MIP now seems to be awarded to a young player who makes an All-Star team for the first time or reaches stardom a year faster than we expected. I don’t think giving the award to guys like Ja Morant or Tyrese Maxey truly fulfills the award’s intention, but that’s where we are, and I’ll make my pick based on the recent trend.
So, give me Hornets sophomore Brandon Miller to win Most Improved this season. Miller is coming off an extremely successful, yet somehow underrated rookie season where he was far and away the third-best rookie in the class behind two generational talents.
He has a legitimate shot to be the leading scorer in Charlotte in 2024-25, and might garner some All-Star buzz should he get off to a quick start. I’m expecting his campaign to be a bit similar to that of Jalen Williams’ last year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a strong push at the award.
Sixth Man of the Year: Bennedict Mathurin
2023/24 Stats: 14.5 PPG – 4.0 RPG – 2.0 APG – 56.2 TS%
After a scorching hot start to his rookie season, it was a fairly underwhelming second-year for Mathurin in Indiana. Despite the sophomore slump, I’m still bullish about Mathurin’s chances to become a microwave like scorer off the bench, something that voters nearly demand out of their Sixth Man of the Year.
Mathurin fits the mold of recent 6MOY winners like Malik Monk, Tyler Herro, and Jordan Clarkson. He’s an extremely talented scorer who doesn’t quite have enough versatility elsewhere to warrant a starting spot on a good team. Indiana’s offensive system is perfect for Mathurin to come off the bench and simply be a scorer.
Mathurin had 27 games of 20 points or more as a rookie, showing he’s capable of putting up some consistently elite numbers. I expect his third year to go a bit smoother than last, and I see no reason why Mathurin can’t be considered one of the premier bench options in the league by the end of the year.
Rookie of the Year: Zach Edey
There’s no doubt that this year’s ROY race will be one of the more unique ones we’ve seen in NBA history. A relatively weak draft class makes the award extremely tough to predict, but I’ll take Grizzlies big-man Zach Edey to walk away with the award this year.
Edey probably won’t be putting up eye-popping numbers or dropping 30-point games left and right, but he has one major advantage amongst his peers in this class. Edey is a safe bet to have a significant role on a good team, something that many of the other ROY contenders can’t say. He was drafted to an ideal situation in Memphis, one that will allow him to do what he does best and not stretch the limits of his abilities too early.
Edey’s role will be simple: clog the paint on defense, gobble up rebounds, and be an effective screener and finisher on offense, three things that he’s been doing at the highest of levels for the past four years. Edey’s path to being a significant contributor seems much clearer than anyone else’s, and I think he will thrive in his limited, yet important role in Memphis.
