Some say the NBA draft is a crapshoot but I don’t agree. Stats, film, and history help advise scouts on which players could be what in the NBA. With that being said, every scout can and will be wrong.
I have not been doing this for a very long time, the first draft I took very seriously was the 2018 draft. Within the seven drafts I have scouted I have been right about prospects many times but I also have my fair share of misses.
In some cases, I have learned more about basketball, in some cases I regret my scout, and in some, I simply stand by my scout. Here I break down six of my biggest misses over the years with one more potential miss.
I explain where I went wrong and if there were any lessons I learned from each prospect and their NBA career.
Killian Hayes
My Rank: 2nd (2020)
Where I Was Wrong
I stand by my Killian Hayes scout. I understand he has been a big disappointment in the NBA but I think if he was a prospect again tomorrow there isn’t much I would do differently. I viewed Hayes as a creative guard scorer capable of guarding and playmaking for others. And that is what he was.
There were concerns about Hayes’s right hand but there have been so many examples of off-hand development in the NBA that I didn’t worry too much considering his other skills.
In the NBA, Hayes’s shooting and creation production plummeted and his defense and playmaking weren’t enough to salvage his role. So many guards have capped ceilings because of a lack of creativity and self-creation skills but Hayes had those while playing for Ulm.
It is easy to say that Hayes did not have those skills because they did not translate to the NBA but the film in Germany stated something else. There are smaller lessons to learn with Hayes but I believe in a vacuum I had the right scout he just did not develop the way I anticipated.
**Should I have had him over Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton…No.
Jarrett Culver
My Rank: 5th (2019)
Where I Was Wrong
Man I felt really confident that Jarrett Culver was going to be very good. I’d like to think that if Jarrett Culver was a prospect now that I wouldn’t rank him this high and I wouldn’t fall for his blend of atheltiscm and size.
I have learned so much about how basketball is played in the past five years and specifically the analytcial side of the game. Jarrett Culver was good at the rim but the rest of his shot diet was tough mid range shots. Culver lacked touch or production to project him as a good outside shooter and that is where the scout starts falling apart.
In the NBA, that is exactly what happened. As a wing Culver was unable to stretch the floor and because he wasn’t a great on ball creator it was hard to justify minutes for him. Culver was a good defender but if your offense is non existent then it just won’t work.
Walker Kessler
My Rank: 43rd (2022)
Where I Was Wrong
Walker Kessler is different than everyone else on this list. I was wrong with Kessler in terms of understating him. To put it short I did not think Kessler would be able to keep up in the NBA laterally and I have been very wrong.
I was a big fan of Kessler’s rim protection and offensive play finishing but thought all of that is irrelevant if he can’t stay on the floor. Kessler is a better athlete than I gave him credit for and has been able to be that defensive anchor he was in college.
In the last two draft cycles, I have put much more emphasis on rim protection and have ranked players higher than I would’ve in 2022. My misevaluation with Walker Kessler has led me to rank prospects such as Zach Edey and Donovan Clingan higher because of similar skills.
Keon Johnson
My Rank: 6th (2021)
Where I Was Wrong
It has been great to watch Keon Johnson play in Brooklyn this season but he will never return #6 value as I projected. My pitch for Keon was as follows:
- Incredible athlete defender
- Capable on ball player
- Great wing passer
- Puts high pressure on the rim
Reading it back I understand why I liked Keon but #6 was far too high. The NBA continues to show and I continue to learn just how important shooting at the guard and wing position is.
Keon Johnson is almost everything that I thought he was but he was and is still not a great shooting threat. From guys like Jarrett Culver, Josh Jackson, and Keon Johnson I have learned that elite athleticism is great but it must be paired with other skills in order for the prospect to stick in the league.
Jabari Smith
My Rank: 1st (2022)
Where I Was Wrong
I still think Jabari Smith will be a good player and have a long career but I feel confident in saying I was wrong. My evaluation of Smith was pretty simple, he will be an elite shooter and a great defender. On top of that, I didn’t want to rule out that the 18-year-old was going to develop some type of on-ball game.
Through a little over two years Jabari Smith has shot 32.7% from 3 and a 115 defensive rating. As a shooter, Smith is still very good off the catch (37.8% last season) although it is still much less than he shot at Auburn (43.1%) but it is his on-ball offense that has struggled.
I never fully bought into Smith as an on-ball creator but I undermined how easily NBA defenses were going to force him to be an on-ball player. His ball handling has gotten better but he likes any flexibility or burst needed to beat defenders off the dribble.
In Jabari Smith’s first two seasons, he has made the Rockets’ defense 3.9 and 5.9 points per 100 possessions worse respectively. I felt confident in Smith’s ability to be a forward stopper but he lacks the elite athleticism that most in that role have.
I still believe in Smith as a really solid role player but any all-star games or high-end production seems to be getting thinner every game that happens.
James Bouknight
My Rank: 7th (2021)
Where I Was Wrong
One-dimensional scoring wings have to be GREAT in order for them to warrant the lack of versatility. James Bouknight was a good creative scorer at UConn and although he shot 32.0% from 3 in college his 80.2% free throw shooting, his confidence, and overall volume suggested that was not going to be a problem.
A good athlete, Bouknight had periods of time in the NBA where he could score but his frame and lack of creation for others has held him back. The NBA is incredibly physical and there is a certain body or frame necessary in order to fill specific roles. As a rim threat and physical scorer, it was always going to be an uphill battle for Bouknight in the league.
James Bouknight’s assist rate has held steady in both his years of college and throughout his NBA career around 12%. As a skinny 6’5 guard, that is simply not good enough.
Scoring is fun from a prospect and it is hard to ignore but the NBA is such a competitive league that I have learned to look for what else they do, and even then I may still get it wrong.
***Scoot Henderson
My Rank: 2nd (2023)
***I still believe in Scoot Henderson and do not think this is a miss. With that being said, I think it is worth talking about.
Where I Was Wrong
Again… I am not sure I am wrong but if I am I believe I overrated his athleticism and what that meant at his size. At just 6’2, a prospect needs to be elite in so many to overcome his size. With a 6’9 wingspan and elite athleticism it appeared Scoot had what was necessary but so far in the league he has struggled mightily to score efficiently.
Scoot was never a good shooter but he had a combination of touch and confidence that usually equated to good shooting. In his first 74 NBA games, Scoot is shooting a bleak 32.3% from 3, and at his size that can be a death sentence.
On top of his poor outside shooting, Scoot shot just 45.6% at the rim during his rookie year. For the Ignite, Scoot shot 58.5% at the rim but the NBA’s shot blocking and athleticism have caused him to have much less rim pressure than he did in the G-League.
Overall, Scoot has lacked any scoring punch that I felt confident he would have. It has been a slow start but small guards often take multiple years to blossom into great players so I will not yet sell my stock with Henderson.
