It is only December but I already have my pick for who will be rising up boards come February and March, none other than Arizona forward Carter Bryant.

Bryant was a top 20 player coming out of high school and a projected first-round pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. Following a slow start to the season, Bryant has seen his stock fall to the point where he is no longer considered a first-round pick.

The main reason that Bryant has slipped down boards is his inefficiencies and his role. He is shooting 41.5% from the field, 26.9% from 3, and is playing only 15 minutes a night. These figures have rightfully hurt his draft stock but it is everything else Bryant is doing on the court that makes me confident in him as a prospect.

Before the season I ranked Carter Bryant the #7 prospect on my board and nothing has changed about my evaluation besides the shot not falling. Let’s take a look at the pitch for Carter Bryant as a prospect,

Overall Impact on the Court

Generic box scores would indicate Carter Bryant has struggled to start the season but he is still impacting winning at a high level for a freshman. This is shown with Bryant’s adjusted on/off numbers through his first 11 games.

Arizona’s offense is 9.4 points per 100 possessions better when Bryant is on the floor vs off.

Arizona’s defense is 11.9 points per 100 possessions better when Bryant is on the floor vs off.

This means Arizona overall is 21.3 points per 100 possessions better when Bryant is on the floor vs off.

Compared to consistently highly ranked college prospects within this cycle Bryant has the 4th highest adjusted on/off (behind Thomas Sorber, Boogie Fland, and Derik Queen). This is clearly contradictory to Bryant’s struggles and demonstrates his ability to impact the game outside of simple scoring and shooting split statistics.

Before the season I was very optimistic about every aspect of Bryant’s game but the area I had the most concern about was his defense. I will get to his defense and how good it has been in more depth later but it has been truly great this season and adds another dimension to his game.

Another type of adjusted box score/on-off metric EvanMiya‘s player rating system has been very complimentary of Bryant through his shooting struggles. On the site, Bryant ranks:

92nd Best Player in the country

10th Best Freshman in the country

3rd Best Player on Arizona

The last point sticks to me the most. Although this Arizona team is off to a slow start the roster is full of really accomplished and good college basketball players like Caleb Loves, KJ Lewis, Motiejus Krivas, Jaden Bradley, and Trey Townsend.

Many things can be said about Bryant as a prospect but in terms of college basketball, it is hard to discount how impactful he has been.

Shooting

The struggle to start the season, Bryant is shooting 28.0% on catch-and-shoot 3s this year (7/25) and 57.1% from the free throw line (8/14). These numbers would worry me more if there wasn’t a bigger sample size before college of him being a great shooter.

In the 27 games on synergy (HS and EYBL), Bryant shot 34.8% from 3 (24/69) and an impressive 89.3% from the line (50/56).

The shot isn’t falling but his past production and touch make me confident that as he gains his footing and confidence within college basketball the shot will fall. It looks good aesthetically and overall his shooting is a skill I am not worried about translating to the NBA.

Defense

Time for the fun stuff. Carter Bryant has been a really fun wing defender this season for Arizona. Against top wings such as Cooper Flagg, Tucker DeVries, and John Tonje, Bryant ate up defensive possessions matched up with them.

EvanMiya ranks Bryant Arizona’s best defender so far this season and the team has a great 83.0 defensive rating when he is on the floor. His EvanMiya ranking also slots him as the 5th best freshman defender in the whole country and the best freshman in the Big 12.

Bryant’s impact on this side of the floor is seen in more traditional statistics as well. Per 36 minutes, Bryant racks up 3.93 stocks ranking behind only VJ Edgecombe and Thomas Sorber. This can be broken down individually as well with his 4.4% steal rate and 3.8% block rate both individually being incredibly impressive.

One final defensive stat to keep in mind and track throughout the season is Bryant’s impact on how the opponent shoots at the rim. Opposing teams shoot 15.3% worse at the rim when Bryant is on the floor compared to when he is not. Additionally, when he is the primary defender teams only attempt a shot against him at the rim every 27.5 minutes showing a level of deterrent.

Keep in mind those two stats more than any other I have mentioned could be the byproduct of low sample size but nonetheless they are interesting data pieces to keep in mind as the season progresses.

Size and Athleticism

This category is pretty simple, it is all good. At 6’8, Bryant has NBA-level size at the position. Although we do not yet have an exact wingspan it is reported to be 7 feet which would explain his defensive prowess.

Bryant has a great frame and more specifically a great set of shoulders. Because his shoulders are so broad I am confident that he will be able to easily add weight in his 20s and while he is in the NBA.

Athletically there are no complaints with Bryant. He already has 6 dunks this season which puts him on a dunk rate near the top of this class especially for wings. He is quick in the open floor and has the acceleration necessary once his on-ball reps rise.

There are still developmental jumps Bryant will need to take but his athleticism is not much of a concern to me and if he invests in his body the way most do in the NBA he will be able to not only survive but thrive in the NBA.

Playmaking

A big part of my off-season pitch for Bryant was his upside as a creator and playmaker. In high school, Bryant was given many more on-ball roles so it has not been showcased in the same way at Arizona. Bryant impresses me with his ability to see plays before they fully develop and read a defense.

Even in his condensed role Bryant still has a solid 15.7% assist rate and a 2.8 assist-turnover rate. Playmaking roles are not given to anybody in the NBA but I have confidence that he will be able to earn them because of his basketball IQ and his ability to create at his size.

In High School, Bryant showed his willingness to get physical on drives especially as he got closer to the rim. This is an underrated skill not discussed when evaluating prospects but against NBA-level athletes, this will be necessary. This helps him create space for himself but also the way he sees the floor, it helps him playmaker for others.

Rebounding and Filling a Role

Even with his struggles and low minutes, Bryant has made the best of his time on the court and has shown a willingness to play a role. It is important to note that Bryant was simply just a fine defender in high school but as his role has changed he has morphed his game to help Arizona.

When drafting outside of the top 10 this willingness to help the team win or change your game are characteristics I hold in high regard. The NBA is not easy and although I think there is a path for him to become a solid NBA starter this willingness shows that even if that does not come to fruition he will help contribute to winning.

Other small things I love for a player within his role. Bryant has been an above-average rebounder so far in college averaging almost 8 rebounds per 40 minutes. Not a big surprise considering his role but Bryant has also done a fantastic job taking care of the ball with a really solid 11.2% turnover rate.

Areas for Concern

Well overall that is my pitch and although I believe in everything I have said I think it is important to note the reasons why he may struggle in the NBA.

I touched on it a little but Bryant’s on-ball role has been significantly diminished at Arizona. He was good enough in high school for me to be confident in it long term but sometimes players simply aren’t able to adjust at the next level.

If the added speed and athletiscm in the college game hinders his on ball creation it is not a great sign of what the NBA level could do to that aspect of his game.

Through the first 11 games, Bryant has only gotten to the rim 2.18 times per 36 minutes which ranks dead last out of the top prospects in this class. This figure is backed up by his low rim rate in high school.

It is also important to note that all of these on/off stats or numbers I have used are based off of 165 minutes of basketball. I will use this as evidence of his further production but it could also be the case that his numbers could drop even more when he enters Big 12 play.

Small note, this season Bryant is 8/14 from the free throw line which equates to 57%. That is a very very low sample to base anything off of considering he shot 89.3% from the free-throw line before entering college. With that being said I wrote it down as something to track for later in the season as the sample size increases.

Conclusion

The shot isn’t falling. That is really the basis of why Bryant has slipped down draft boards but even with those shooting percentages, Bryant has been one of the most impactful freshmen in all of college basketball. He checks nearly every box you would want from a modern wing as someone who can defend, pass, and rebound.

A large sample of solid perimeter shooting leads me to think his shooting numbers will rise and when they do the public will realize just how good he has been. I project, Bryant, to be a starting-caliber NBA wing and someone who by the end of the season will go in the top 20 or maybe even the lottery.